The Duke Blue Devils were on a roll, off a bye and traveling to Atlanta to play a struggling Georgia Tech team last week as a road favorite by a touchdown, but it didn’t matter. They lost the game outright despite outgaining the Yellow Jackets, converting 10 of 17 third downs and committing five fewer penalties. It couldn’t have been more different for their dreaded in-state rivals in the North Carolina Tar Heels, who won outright at Pitt, 21-17, after valiant efforts against Clemson and Notre Dame prior to that victory.
The Tar Heels have some momentum ahead of their trip literally down the road to Durham. Under coach Bill Belichick, the Heels have defended pretty well, and they’re not suffering from self-inflicted wounds. In fact, they’re 2nd nationally in penalties per game, while they’re top-45 in yards per play, PPA per play and explosiveness allowed (CollegeFootballData). Compare that to Duke, who is 126th in penalties per game and outside the top 55 in PPA per play and standard downs defensively despite a strength of schedule that doesn’t even come close to that of UNC. The Tar Heels are 10th nationally in that regard according to Sagarin; the Blue Devils are outside the top 90.
Taking the points with the Heels is very appealing here, but UNC QB Billy Edwards Jr. is erratic with the ball, and the Heels can be exposed against the run as games go on – they’re much better against the pass. That’s not ideal against Nate Sheppard. Instead, I’m going to pivot to the total and take the under. This figures to be a slow-moving game, as the hosts are 114th in seconds per play and off a loss in a game they let get away from them. Less possessions means less opportunities for Edwards turnovers. Plus, both defenses are top-25 nationally in red-zone touchdowns allowed through Week 6. Give me the low on the total.
North Carolina vs Duke prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.
