The Pirates were on a three-game winning streak in mid-October before losing by double digits as a road favorite at UAB and then losing in dramatic fashion in Memphis the following week, but they turned things around with an ugly 17-9 win over Temple on Halloween. On the other side, USF has won and covered in two straight quite easily, separated by a bye week, which followed two consecutive losses to Temple and UTSA in Week 5 and Week 6, respectively.
This is a matchup between two teams that are carried more by their defenses than their offenses. USF and ECU are outside the top 70 in scoring and outside the top 100 in total offense while mutually sitting 120th or worse in yards per play. Over the last six weeks, neither scoring unit has been good on standard downs, putting their respective offenses in difficult third-down situations, and neither has been able to consistently find the end zone once crossing the opposing 40-yard line. Negating havoc hasn’t been a strength of either offensive line, either.
On the other side of the ball, USF surrenders only 14.5 points per game and is one of the best red-zone defenses in the country, while ECU checks in around 24 points per game and is above average in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (CFBStats). Both are top-50 in total defense, as well as top-40 in yards per play allowed, and over the last six weeks, both stop-units are top-30 in PPA per play, success rate, points per opportunity and standard downs outside of garbage time (CollegeFootballData).
Both teams have run the ball pretty heavily in competitive games of late. USF is around 57% rush rate outside of garbage time since Week 4, while ECU is around 51% in that span. That said, neither ground game has been particularly efficient – at least, not enough to be confident in their ability to move the ball against an opposing defense that ranks top-40 in yards per attempt, stuff rate, rush success rate like both the Bulls and the Pirates. Not to mention, the Bulls are pretty slow in their pace of play – 119th to be exact – so that could really bring this game to a crawl, and neither offense has been explosive to offset that slow pace. The total is low for a reason, look for this to be a 20-17 type game either way. Oh, and check the weather report, as Friday in Greenville is supposed to be wet and windy.
USF vs ECU prediction: Under 39.5 (-106) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.5 (-110).
