The Toledo Rockets will hit the road for Eastern Michigan after an embarrassing loss at home to Buffalo – the Rockets were -18.5 favorites at home and lost outright 23-8. It was just their second loss of the season and their first to a non-power opponent, as they committed 15 penalties, lost the turnover battle by three and had the ball for almost 11 fewer minutes than a Bulls team that sits 125th out of 138 teams in my power ratings. Through six games, the Rockets are 2-4 ATS – their two covers being against an FCS opponent and a struggling San Diego State team that traveled out east to play in Toledo at noon ET.
Eastern Michigan has won three straight, erasing their three-game losing streak earlier in the year, but it didn’t exactly come easy – they barely escaped Akron last week after ending UMass’ undefeated season the week prior. The Eagles are just 3-4 ATS, but they are 2-1 ATS in conference, with last week’s result being the lone non-cover. In the head-to-head series, Toledo has won three straight and five of six, while EMU is 4-1-1 ATS in that span. It's a new era in northwestern Ohio, though, as head coach Jason Candle is now at UConn.
I don’t think much separates these teams, so I lean to the hosts to at least cover. Toledo doesn’t exactly entice me in the road-favorite role given they rank 128th in penalties per game, don’t generate much havoc and are middling on standard downs defensively. Sitting 17th in penalties, EMU at least doesn’t suffer from self-inflicted wounds, and at 39th in non-garbage time havoc generated, they’re at least causing some chaos defensively.
Toledo vs Eastern Michigan prediction: Eastern Michigan +5.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.
