Both averaging over 33 points, with UTSA surrendering an average of 26 points and FAU nearly 36, oddsmakers certainly anticipate scoring in this one given the total in the low 70s. We don’t often see totals in the 70s. There have only been three this year involving any FBS team; two of them went over the total, including the FAU-UNT game, which soared over the 77.5-point mark by 11.5. Dating back to the start of the 2024 season, overs are 7-3 in 10 games with totals of at least 70 (TrendsCenter).
Trends are nice and all, but they don’t score points. The question is whether these offenses can propel this total in this matchup, and I believe they can. Both teams are top 40 in standard downs rate and PPA outside of garbage time over the last six weeks, meaning they stay ahead of the sticks. Meanwhile, both defenses have struggled in these areas, sitting outside the top 100 in standard downs PPA in that span.
UTSA relies on the ground game more than FAU, boasting top-15 efficiency marks. The Roadrunners should have plenty of room to do just that against an FAU defense that is third-worst nationally in PPA per rush and worst nationally in rush explosiveness allowed outside of garbage time since Week 4. In counting stats, the Owls surrender the second-most rush yards per game according to CFBStats (255.13).
On the other side, the FAU passing attack should have similar advantages against UTSA’s secondary. The Owls are top-10 in PPA per pass and pass success rate over the last six weeks, while the Roadrunners are 112th in PPA per pass and 137th in pass explosiveness in that span. Moreover, the Owls play with the most pace in the country.
Weather has been bad in Florida lately, but Thursday’s forecast is pretty perfect so far in Boca. I’m leaning high on this total, as I don’t see any redeeming qualities for either defense in this matchup.
UTSA vs FAU prediction: Over 72.5 (-112) at the time of publishing. Playable to 73.5 (-110).
