I still think it’s too soon to give up on the Sooners entirely. Oklahoma enters Gainesville at 4-4, but the Sooners have been more competitive than their record suggests. While recent losses to South Carolina and Georgia stand out, this is also a team that owns wins over Texas and Mississippi State and has played one of the tougher schedules in the SEC. More importantly, Oklahoma's defense continues to give it a chance nearly every week. The Sooners are allowing just 20.8 points per game and rank among the conference's better defenses in both total and passing yards allowed.
Florida has shown flashes throughout the season and deserves to be favored at home, but the Gators have hardly been unbeatable. All three of Florida's losses have come by double digits, and consistency has been a challenge from week to week. While the Gators possess the more explosive rushing attack, Oklahoma's defense is capable of keeping that strength from completely taking over the field. While it’s true Oklahoma’s change at offensive coordinator may seem like a liability, I feel it will give them something to rally around.
Florida may ultimately protect its home field, but asking the Gators to win by a full touchdown feels a touch too aggressive. In a game that will likely be decided by defense, field position, and a handful of key drives, I'll gladly take the points. Of course, I’d love to have a full touchdown or more, but 28-23 or 27-21 feels realistic, give me the underdog Sooners +6.5.
Florida vs Oklahoma prediction: Oklahoma Sooners +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6 (-115).
