Have we reached rock bottom in the upstate of South Carolina? The Clemson Tigers are off their sixth home loss since the start of last year, which is not something this program is used to. To put it into perspective, the Tigers lost just seven home games from 2010 to 2023, including 40 straight wins at one point.
Dabo Swinney looked defeated in his post-game press conference after the loss to Virginia Tech. At 4-3 SU with three road games remaining, as well as a meeting with in-state rival South Carolina, Clemson’s bowl eligibility is firmly in doubt, and at 2-5 ATS, bettors will likely continue to doubt Clemson’s upside. It’s for good reason; the Tigers are 111th in scoring, 115th in total offense, 123rd in third-down conversion rate, 128th in yards per play and 134th in red-zone touchdown rate over the course of the entire year, while they’re outside the top 90 in a vast majority of the advanced offensive metrics I track over the last six weeks. As a result, the defense has had to carry most of the load, but that’s unsustainable at this level. If Clemson can’t maintain drives – they rank outside the top 95 on both standard and passing downs since Week 3 and are one of the 12 most punt-heavy teams this year – then the defense will be on the field too often to be effective for all four quarters.
Florida State comes into this contest off a bye, which was probably good for them after they were arguably hosed at Miami in double overtime. This game is strength-on-strength and weakness-on-weakness, meaning the ‘Noles' bad defense will be covered up by Clemson’s poor offense, while their offense – which is significantly better than Clemson’s – has to go up against a very solid Tigers stop-unit. The bye week should be a huge benefit for FSU in that regard.
Since losing the three opening games of the 2024 season, all in the favorite role, the Seminoles have been home favorites over a power-conference opponent only four times, and they covered the spread in three of those. Moreover, they looked dominant in their last home game, when they ran all over the Virginia Cavaliers in a 38-7 win as +1.5 underdogs, rushing for 281 yards on 6.1 yards per carry with five rushing touchdowns. For what it’s worth, Clemson is 70th in PPA per rush and 113th in rush success allowed outside of garbage time over the last six weeks, while PFF has the Tigers as one of the 25 worst tackling defenses in the country. Look for the Noles to rely on their ground game and take advantage of Clemon’s inability to sustain drives.
Clemson vs Florida State prediction: Florida State Seminoles -5.5 (-109) at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5 (-105).
