The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will actually be indoors this year when the Florida Gators and Georgia Bulldogs meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for their annual rivalry game. This is the first time the rivals will meet outside the state of Florida since 1995; they will return to Florida next year when they meet in Tampa. Once 2028 rolls around, their usual host venue in Jacksonville – the home of the Jaguars – will be renovated and ready to welcome Gators and Bulldogs fans again.
The ‘Dawgs are no strangers to playing in Atlanta, as this will be their third game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in the last calendar year and the fifth since the start of the 2024 season. Georgia is elite off a loss under Kirby Smart, and with an extra week to prepare – even if mutual – I expect much of the same this week. That said, I also respect Jon Sumrall and his staff enough to pause before I blindly bet UGA simply because they’re off a loss and a bye. The one unknown in this game is Florida’s quarterback situation. Will it be Aaron Philo or Tramell Jones? Not that one is exponentially better than the other, but Philo is more experienced if nothing else, which matters against a program like Georgia.
Given the uncertainty and recent inconsistency of Florida’s offense, I’m going to ignore the spread market and full-game total market. Instead, I’m going to isolate Georgia’s offense and take over on the Bulldogs’ team total. One thing we know for certain is that Florida’s defense has struggled in conference play, and that’s putting it lightly. The Gators allow an average of 34.80 points per game to their SEC foes, which is second-worst and ahead of just Vanderbilt, while they surrendered at least 38 points to Auburn, Missouri and South Carolina.
Over the last six weeks, Florida’s stop-unit ranks 105th in PPA per play, 119th in success rate and 133rd in points allowed per scoring opportunity (4.69) outside of garbage time. Further, the Gators’ defense is 119th in standard downs rate and 130th in passing downs PPA allowed in that span, as well as 124th in third-down conversion rate allowed on the year, so their opponents are often in manageable third downs and are able to sustain drives consistently because of it. That’s bad news against a Georgia offense that is top-five nationally at moving the chains, seemingly always ahead of the sticks against inferior defenses and finishes its quality drives with touchdowns more often than not. For reference, the ‘Dawgs are eighth in points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time over the last six weeks, averaging more than 4.8 points when they cross inside the opposing 40-yard line. They also sit third nationally in red-zone touchdown rate, scoring 28 times on their 34 red-zone trips.
Georgia is third in the SEC in scoring, putting up nearly 34 points per game. We need more than that to cash this bet, but the added factors of Georgia being off a loss and a bye while playing a poor defense make me confident in the ‘Dawgs reaching at least 35 in this one.
Florida vs Georgia best bet: Georgia Bulldogs team total over 34.5 (-108) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number to -125 or up to 35.5 (+110).
