A line of 18.5 felt a little short on this, until I looked into Georgia Southern a bit more. Georgia Southern has made four straight bowl games and beat App State in last year's Birmingham Bowl. This season, they held Clemson to 22 points on the road while averaging 17.7 points surrendered per game. Max Johnson, a North Carolina transfer, has thrown for 712 yards on 128 attempts with one interception. That is not a team that gets run out of its own stadium by three touchdowns.
The counter is what Houston did last week, and it is a strong one. They outgained Texas Tech 458 to 425 in Lubbock, held the ball for nearly 34 minutes and lost by two when a conversion came up short. That is a top-25 team, and it has already hung 77 on an overmatched opponent this month. That was an emotional loss. I am betting that covering 18.5 points on the road after such an emotional defeat is a tough task.
Clay Helton's team lost 31-27 at Jacksonville State last week, which is the result that put this number where it is. The market has not moved off it, and at a number this size, I would rather have the points.
Houston vs Georgia Southern prediction: Georgia Southern Eagles +18.5 (-109) available at time of publishing. Playable to +17.5.
