West Virginia's last five games have all gone over the total, and its pass defense ranks last in the country against FBS teams. Cincinnati allows 6.16 yards per play in its games, so neither defense looks equipped to keep this under the total.

Maryland and Rutgers both allow more than 38 points per game to FBS opponents, ranking 130th and 127th, and four of each team's games would already have cleared this total -- so it is still too low.

Air Force is on its second starting quarterback and still runs nearly 62 times a game against FBS teams, and UNLV's games have gone under the closing total in five of six. Neither defense allows 22 points a game against FBS opponents.

Oklahoma hasn't beaten an FBS team other than UTEP by more than eight points, and Kentucky has won three games outright as an underdog. With a total this low, getting a touchdown against an offense that can't pull away is a lot of room.

Navy runs for nearly 250 yards a game against FBS teams and gets a UTSA run defense that ranks 113th, with an offensive line its own coach says limped home last week. A touchdown goes a long way in a game this short.