The Duke Blue Devils are perfect thus far, covering and winning each of their four games, including as a road underdog at Illinois. They will head back on the road again this week when they play the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, who are on the opposite end of the spectrum from a wins and covers perspective. The hosts are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, with their only win coming against FCS Mercer – a team that just lost its coach and most of its players to Toledo in the offseason. For what it’s worth, Duke and Georgia Tech both played Stanford. The Blue Devils crushed the Cardinal at home 35-7, while the Jackets lost out in California 34-27. Also, these teams are off mutual bye weeks.
I definitely don’t like that Duke has a date with arch-rival UNC next week, but considering the Blue Devils are undefeated and playing with revenge after losing to Tech last year, I don’t see Duke overlooking this week’s matchup – especially out of a bye. Outside of that, I find it hard to back Georgia Tech here.
The Yellow Jackets haven’t done much right this year. They’re 135th in turnover margin, 125th in penalties, and outside the top 80 in a vast majority of advanced metrics despite a very average strength of schedule. Specifically, they’ve been pretty bad against the run, sitting 87th in PPA per rush and 115th in rush success rate allowed outside of garbage time, which is absolutely not the place to be against Duke RB Nate Sheppard – a top-four back nationally in total yards and yards after contact, while being tied atop the nation in most designed runs of at least 15 yards (12) per PFF.
Behind Sheppard, Duke is top-25 in standard downs PPA and PPA per rush. His effectiveness also opens up the passing game for QB Walker Eget, who has five big-time throws, just one turnover-worthy play and one sack thus far. Eget’s adjusted completion percentage is very good at 75.3%, and he throws a pretty good deep ball, which provides the Blue Devils with a balanced approach against a defense that struggles in the secondary even more than it does up front against the run. For reference, the Jackets are 124th in PPA per pass and 138th in pass explosiveness outside of garbage time (CollegeFootballData).
Admittedly, there isn’t a ton of value in this number. I have Duke around -7.5, so it’s a lean to the Blue Devils at anything -7 or better, but I also expect a motivated effort from Georgia Tech. Whether they can execute behind said motivation remains to be seen.
Duke vs Georgia Tech prediction: Duke -6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-115).
