This weekend in Hawaii, we may be waving aloha to the over as the stage is set for a tropical scoring showcase. Los Lobos will make the 3,227-mile trip to Honolulu to face the Rainbow Warriors in what looks like another opportunity to add to one of the nation's most impressive scoring runs. New Mexico enters the matchup averaging 43.4 points per game, good for fifth in the FBS, trailing only Miami, Georgia, Alabama, and Notre Dame in scoring offense. Hawaii, meanwhile, has arguably struggled to keep opponents off the scoreboard, even on its home field.
New Mexico has been one of the Mountain West's most pleasant surprises this season. Los Lobos enter at 4-1, with their only setback coming in a tightly contested 14-6 road loss to Oklahoma. More importantly, they've developed into a complete football team, pairing an explosive offense with one of the nation's stingiest defenses. New Mexico owns a remarkable +164 scoring differential through five games and is surrendering just 10.6 points per contest, the third-best mark in the FBS. That combination has been a nightmare for opponents, and it could spell trouble for a Hawaii team that has struggled to slow opposing offenses throughout the season
New Mexico's dominance on both sides of the ball makes a compelling case for the Lobos to cover the spread, but the over looks more inviting. After all, this game is being played in the heat and humidity of Oahu, where the Rainbow Warriors could find enough success to land a punch or two and push past their team total. If Hawaii can hang around long enough to force New Mexico to stay aggressive into the fourth quarter, the scoring opportunities should continue to pile up. That's the game script I'm counting on, and whether it's 31-14, 35-17, or something even higher, I see enough offense in Honolulu to keep this total moving north, even though the game itself is south of the Tropic of Cancer.
Hawaii vs New Mexico prediction: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45 (-125).
