The Cincinnati Bearcats and Houston Cougars have something in common ahead of their meeting in Texas this weekend. Both teams come into this contest following losses to Utah, with the only differences being Houston played their game at Utah and let it slip away late, while Cincinnati was taken to the woodshed at home against the Utes just last week. That also means Houston has had a week off, during which they were able to rest and re-focus on the remaining season ahead.
The Bearcats have been over machines this season, sitting at 6-2 to the over, including 4-1 in conference games, and it’s hard to see that trend ending this week against a Houston squad that is strong offensively and not so much defensively. In fact, both offenses are top-35 in scoring, top-20 in total offense, top-25 in yards per play and top-35 in red-zone touchdown rate (CFBStats).
Defensively, Cincinnati is outside the top 100 in scoring and bottom-10 in total defense, and while Houston is a decent bit better from a basic stats perspective, both stop-units have been similarly bad from an efficiency standpoint since the end of September. For reference, the Bearcats and the Cowboys are both outside the top 110 in PPA per play and success rate allowed outside of garbage time since Week 4, while both defenses have given up at least 4.4 points per opposing trip inside the 40-yard line.
Houston is 5-3 to the over, but they’ve had two games with totals in the 60s, and both of those went over. The Coogs will probably buoy the scoring considering the Bearcats have surrendered at least 45 points in two of their last three contests, but Houston isn’t immune to defensive lapses, and the Bearcats have proven they can put points on the board in response to their defensive inefficiencies.
Cincinnati vs Houston prediction: Over 62.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 63.
