USC may be off a bye after their biggest win of the season, but I don’t envy the spot they’re in this Saturday when they have to travel out east to play the defending national champions in the Indiana Hoosiers, also off a bye, at 3:30 PM ET. Despite their 8-1 SU record, the Hoosiers have been an awful bet this year, as their spread record is the inverse of their outright record (1-8). Granted, two of their previous three results were just barely non-covers, and they were laying more than 40 points in their first three games of the season, so I’m not going to put too much weight into it. That said, the Minnesota performance was head-scratching, even if it came after three consecutive challenging games against Nebraska, Ohio State and Michigan. Meanwhile, USC has suffered a similar fate. The Trojans are 7-2 SU, but they’re just 3-6 ATS, and only two of their six conference games resulted in covers – at Penn State and against Ohio State without Julian Sayin.
Speaking of that cover against Penn State, it’s notable because USC has been pretty bad when traveling east for conference play since the Big Ten expanded. In 2024, they were 0-3 SU/ATS in Big Ten games in the central and eastern time zones, and last year, they were 0-3 ATS again in those spots – though they did win outright at Purdue and Nebraska. This season, they’re 0-2 ATS in such spots outside of that Penn State game, so, as you can see, that cover was the first of its kind in the new Big Ten era. Unfortunately for the Trojans, this will be their fourth game in the central or eastern time zones this year, including the third in their last four games. Two bye weeks were mixed in that run of four games, but that didn’t exactly help USC when they went to Wisconsin following their Week 7 bye – they lost that game 24-7.
After falling five spots in the College Football Playoff rankings despite being idle last week, I’m expecting Indiana to be hungry to win convincingly against USC, and they certainly have the means to do it. They’re top-10 in penalties per game and yards per play on both sides of the ball, while their stop-unit sits fourth in scoring (12.4 PPG), fifth in total defense (259.2 YPG) and tied-second in red-zone touchdowns allowed (CFBStats). The Hoosiers have surrendered 20+ points just once this season – in Week 4 against Northwestern – so I don’t really trust USC to score consistently in this one, especially after only seven points scored at Wisconsin.
The Trojans haven’t been all that efficient of late. Their offense is outside the top 50 in PPA per play and outside the top 75 in explosiveness outside of garbage time since Week 5, while they’re 87th in points per scoring opportunity. Going back to their aforementioned issue in the trenches, they’re 99th in havoc allowed, 123rd in line yards and 133rd in stuff rate allowed in that span, while they’re 98th in havoc generated, 98th in line yards allowed and 94th in stuff rate defensively. There’s just no edge for USC here. Hoo-Hoo-Hoo Hoosiers!
USC vs Indiana best bet: Indiana Hoosiers -8.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -10.
