The Oklahoma State Cowboys continue humming offensively via the arm of Drew Mestemaker. Following their 57-24 win over Colorado, the ‘Pokes have scored at least 32 points in six straight games and at least 39 points in five of those six. The handicap comes down to whether you believe Iowa State can be the first Big 12 defense to limit this offense, but I have a hard time seeing that happening.
The Cyclones have given up at least 31 points in three of their four conference games, but they’ve only seen one passing attack that is anywhere near as efficient as Oklahoma State, and that was last week against Arizona. They surrendered 39 points to the Wildcats in a 36-point loss. Following that defeat, the Cyclones stop-unit ranks 121st in yards per play, outside the top 65 in scoring and outside the top 80 in total defense, but the basic counting stats don’t tell the whole story – they would probably be worse if the ‘Clones played any faster. For reference, they’re 115th in seconds per play and 97th in plays per game, which, in theory, is a way for them to indirectly limit OK State’s production. However, when you dig into the advanced metrics, you can see the Cyclones are severely lacking in terms of efficiency.
Iowa State’s defense is 117th in PPA per play and 114th in success rate outside of garbage time since Week 3, and the Cyclones don’t generate much havoc. Even at home, I just have a hard time seeing them slowing down this Oklahoma State offense – a unit that sits top-five in PPA per play, success rate and total scoring opportunities in the last six weeks. Thanks to Mestemaker, this is the most efficient passing attack since Week 3, while Iowa State is outside the top 100 against the pass in that time.
Iowa State hasn’t been good enough offensively to utilize their slow pace as an effective game plan for limiting Oklahoma State’s firepower. The Cyclones have a difficult time sustaining drives, which means the ‘Pokes should have enough possession to continue their scoring rampage. After checking the weather, I don’t see anything in the forecast to suggest the Pokes will have trouble throwing the ball – maybe a few light showers but that’s it. Anything under 35 is a play.
Oklahoma State vs Iowa State prediction: Oklahoma State Cowboys team total over 33.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to 34.5 (-120).
