Week 7 hosts a matchup between Sun Belt cash cows on Saturday at noon ET when the Georgia State Panthers travel to James Madison to play the Dukes. The Panthers are 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS, taking care of business against an admittedly soft strength of schedule that ranks 150th nationally per Sagarin. The Dukes aren’t far behind in that regard, sitting outside the top 120. They're undefeated at 6-0 and just suffered their first non-cover of the season last week at Georgia Southern.
JMU carries a heavy price in this matchup, currently listed as a double-digit favorite at the time of writing. The Dukes are the better outfit and the more renowned brand, but oddsmakers may be selling the Panthers short, especially considering they come into this matchup following a bye week.
James Madison QB Camden Coleman has thrown just one interception, but he has nine turnover-worthy plays with only four big-time throws and has taken eight sacks (PFF). In comparison, Georgia State’s Cameran Brown has 10 big-time throws, four turnover-worthy plays and two sacks. In other words, the quarterback of the double-digit favorite puts the ball into harm’s way more than the quarterback of the underdog, who is more accurate, better down the field and better under pressure than his counterpart.
Despite a soft strength of schedule, JMU is 92nd offensively on third downs and 75th defensively, which is alarming given the level of opponents they’ve played to this point. They’re also 70th in standard downs PPA, so in tandem with their third-down woes, I envision they may fail to sustain some of their drives. On the other side, the Dukes allow their opponents to drive down inside the 40-yard line at a rate that ranks 99th outside of garbage time. Against better competition, opposing offenses will eventually make the Dukes pay for surrendering that many scoring opportunities.
The Panthers aren’t world beaters, but they’ve done what they’re supposed to do against a weak schedule. They’re top-20 on third downs on both sides of the ball, as well as havoc on both sides, while they sit top-25 in finishing drives outside of garbage time. To me, that sounds like an underdog that can easily sneak in the back door, if not remain competitive throughout.
Georgia State vs James Madison prediction: Georgia State Panthers +12 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.
