Sun Belt play rolls along this week with a midweek showdown between the Troy Trojans and James Madison Dukes, the latter of whom are coming off their first loss of the season, 34-31, in overtime at App State. Not only did the Dukes lose the game, but they lost their star running back George Pettaway in the short term – he will not suit up for this game. JMU has admirable replacements behind him, but this is a significant loss to the offense. He’s a top-45 back in PFF run grade, leading the team in yards and touchdowns while averaging better than 6.5 yards per carry.
Schedule makers were not kind to the Dukes. They have not had a bye yet, and they won’t until the second-last week of the season. In other words, they’re about to play their ninth consecutive game, and there’s no end in sight.
Troy is just 2-5 ATS, coming into this game off a loss as a double-digit favorite – making it their fourth defeat in five outings. The loss was tough, to say the least, as they held a 14-3 lead over lowly ULM with just over six minutes left in the game before they surrendered 18 unanswered points, including a fumble-six by Troy backup quarterback Tucker Kilcrease as time expired. Starting QB Goose Crowder is banged up and may not play, as he was unable to finish the game last week. Keep an eye on his status.
I have to imagine the lack of a bye week is starting to wear on JMU, and after their first loss of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flat effort against Troy. On the other side, I don’t trust the Trojans’ offense much, with or without Crowder. Even if he plays, it’s expected that he will be limited, as he’s had a lingering shoulder issue since the loss to ULL. If he was fully healthy, I’d probably take the points here. Instead, I’m going low on the total.
For what it’s worth, Troy is top-30 in points per scoring opportunity allowed outside of garbage time since Week 3, while they’re top-12 in red-zone scoring rate allowed this season (including field goals). Offensively, the Trojans are bottom-25 in red-zone trips this season and outside the top 80 in non-garbage time scoring opportunities over the last six weeks. It all adds up to a low-scoring affair to me. Take the under.
Troy vs James Madison prediction: Under 49.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 48 (-115).
