The Kansas State Wildcats will play host to the Houston Cougars on Saturday in what will be K-State’s conference home opener. The ‘Cats come into this game off a bye following a loss at Cincinnati, 31-26, in which they surrendered 7.1 yards per carry and 12.7 yards per pass. On the other side, Houston hasn’t had a bye yet. They’ve won four of their five contests, and their lone loss came by just two points at Texas Tech. The Coogs certainly have the better body of work, and their strength of schedule ranks top-40 by Sagarin, while the Wildcats are 131st in that regard.
On paper, K-State has solid numbers on both sides of the ball, though they’re 82nd in turnover margin, 105th in points per opportunity allowed and 115th in PPA per rush allowed. It’s not exactly settling that they’re so low in those metrics with a soft strength of schedule, especially when you consider they failed their first test against a real offense in the loss against the Bearcats. Now, they’re stepping up in class again, this time against a top-20 offense in points, yards, efficiency, success rate, finishing drives, havoc allowed and standard downs rate. Houston certainly has some issues of their own defensively, but they’re much better against the run, and against this Wildcats defense, I’m confident in the Coogs’ ability to respond to any KSU score.
Houston QB Conner Weigman is a baller. Through five games, he’s second in the Big 12 in touchdowns and fourth in yards, while he has just one interception and one turnover-worthy play. Moreover, he's been much better than Avery Johnson under pressure in his Big 12 career, which will likely come into play in this one.
Weigman also can lean on a reliable running back duo in Re’Shaun Sanford II and Makhi Hughes, who have combined for almost 625 rushing yards on 121 carries with two scores apiece to support Weigman’s six on the ground. His top three targets have been lethal, specifically on passing downs, each averaging at least 12 yards per reception. Wide receiver Amare Thomas and TE Patrick Overmyer have been difference-makers, and I expect that to continue against a KSU secondary whose metrics may not tell the whole story.
If you believe in extra motivational edges, this is one of them. Current K-State coach Collin Klein was Weigman’s offensive coordinator at Texas A&M a few years ago and had a hand in his benching in favor of Marcel Reed. I’m sure there’s probably some extra motivation there for Weigman in this one.
Even with this game in Manhattan, Kansas, and even with the K-State rest advantage, I’m not so sure the Wildcats deserve to be -3 favorites over Houston. In fact, I’d argue this game should be no more than a pick ‘em. Give me the Coogs to win outright.
Houston vs Kansas State: Houston ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.
