The Oklahoma State offense has been a wagon, posting 106 points across the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Kansas State offense has several question marks surrounding it, with starting QB Avery Johnson sidelined due to injury. While his replacement, Blake Barnett, had a decent game individually last time out in a loss against Colorado, it’s hard to see the Wildcats’ offense keeping up with the Pokes.
Oklahoma State ranks top 20 in EPA per play, success rate and points per game. The offense consistently produces chunk plays, averaging 7.3 yards per play compared to 6.0 for Kansas State. They have also produced 55 20+ yard plays this season, the second-most among FBS programs. That efficiency also comes with the ability to sustain drives, as the Cowboys possess the lowest three-and-out rate in the nation (5.3%). The Wildcats’ secondary is likely the toughest test to date for QB Drew Mestemaker, but I don’t see K-State matching the production in either the run or pass game without Johnson under center in a matchup that’s projected to be a shootout.
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State prediction: Oklahoma State Cowboys -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.
