The Liberty Flames and the Kennesaw State Owls will meet on completely different trajectories on Thursday – a game that was previously scheduled for Wednesday and moved to accommodate TV schedules. The Flames have won every game since Week 1, as they sit 5-1 SU and come into this contest off a bye. Meanwhile, the defending CUSA champions are 1-5 SU and losers of five straight.
The Owls have been pretty competitive in their last three losses, all by a combined seven points, which makes this number seem pretty big – even if Liberty is the class of the conference thus far. If we’re splitting hairs, Liberty hasn’t really played anyone since that seven-point loss to James Madison in Week 1, so it’s tough to put a ton of weight into their sparkling statistical profile. That said, they’re top-10 nationally in success rate on both sides of the ball, and they rank in that same range on standard downs both offensively and defensively, which means they should often be in easy third-down situations while the Owls could be in third-and-long more often than not. For what it’s worth, the Owls rank 98th in passing downs PPA outside of garbage time since Week 2 against a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 110 per Sagarin. In fact, this team is outside the top 90 in most metrics I use on both sides of the ball.
Liberty’s strength of schedule is nothing to write home about; multiple FCS teams have a more difficult strength of schedule to this point, but the difference is the Flames have taken care of business against their inferior foes over the last four weeks – all by at least 16 points – while Kennesaw has lost those games. Sure, the Owls have had a slightly more difficult road and this is a huge number, but Liberty has the more talented roster and better coach for my money, especially when you consider the likes of RB Kam Davis, QB Deshawn Purdie and WR Makai Jackson. Now add the extra rest and preparation on top of that, as well as the double-revenge spot, and it’s Liberty or pass for me in this one.
Liberty vs Kennesaw State prediction: Liberty -10 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.
