It will be a cat fight in Lexington this Saturday when the LSU Tigers visit Kroger Field to play the surging Kentucky Wildcats. Will Stein’s squad has rattled off three straight wins, including two wins as road underdogs in league play. Their win in College Station as +16.5 underdogs was eye-opening, while their comeback, overtime win at South Carolina showed their heart and determination. That said, they were outgained in both games, won the turnover battle 4-0 and allowed both the Aggies and Gamecocks to convert at least half of their third-down attempts. Both rushing attacks also gashed the Wildcats, with Texas A&M at 5.3 yards per carry and South Carolina at 6.3.
Not to take anything away from Kentucky; they earned those victories, but they were also pretty fortunate that their opponents aided the process. Both Marcel Reed and LaNorris Sellers have been shells of themselves this season, leading offenses that are 92nd and 66th, respectively, in PPA per play outside of garbage time. Needless to say, LSU is a completely different beast.
Kentucky’s defensive depth has been decimated by injuries, particularly in the middle of the unit, which is less-than-ideal against an uptempo, explosive Lane Kiffin offense with talent that compares to any top program in the nation. It’s also not ideal that short-handed Kentucky just exerted so much energy in a comeback win on the road last week, while the Tigers have essentially been coasting for three.
Even after adding a point of home-field advantage for a night game in Lexington, I would still argue LSU should be -10 or -10.5 in this matchup, especially after what Alabama did to the Wildcats. That said, while Kiffin has generally been good as a road favorite in the SEC, he’s also had a couple interesting non-covers or losses in that role, too. As such, I feel better about taking the team total, which currently sits below a key number of 31.
LSU is top-35 in almost every offensive category I track weekly, but they’re particularly good at staying ahead of the sticks and reaching scoring opportunities, and I don’t think that’s going to change this week against a Kentucky defense that is 104th in standard downs rate, 105th in third-down conversion rate, 103rd in success rate and 97th in points per scoring opportunity allowed. For what it’s worth, the Wildcats have also surrendered 18 scores on 20 red-zone trips, 15 of which were touchdowns – which is one of the 15 lowest marks in the country. I like LSU to win and cover here, but I love them scoring in bunches a bit more. Note - Hurricane Isaias could affect this contest, but the most recent forecasts suggest the worst of the weather will not reach Lexington until after the game.
LSU vs Kentucky best bet: LSU Tigers team total over 30.5 (-113) available at time of publishing. Playable to 31 (-125).
