Sam Houston State and Liberty will meet on Wednesday as part of the mid-week Conference USA slate. They come into this contest on opposite ends of the spectrum, as the Bearkats of Sam Houston are 1-3 SU while Liberty is 4-1, but both programs have won against the spread in three of their games. This will be Sam Houston’s conference opener after having a bye last week; Liberty is 1-0 in conference after beating Delaware Friday.
My numbers suggest slight value with Liberty, but I can’t actually get there when I add more context to this matchup. Sure, 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS is good from a results standpoint, but the first two weeks of the season weren’t pretty for Liberty considering they lost to James Madison and then almost lost to FCS Gardner-Webb. Their best football has come in the last three weeks against a Ball State team that is 135th in my power ratings, a Coastal team that could not stop turning the ball over and a Delaware team that was without its starting quarterback – arguably the best in the conference. Despite their record, Liberty ranks outside the top 115 in penalties per game, and they’re more prone to giving up big plays than gaining their own.
Backing Sam Houston requires a bit of a nose plug. There’s not much to like about the statistical profile of this team, though it’s worth mentioning their strength of schedule has been harder than Liberty’s. Also worth mentioning is the fact that the Bearkats are seventh nationally in havoc generated and top-40 in preventing and defending scoring opportunities outside of garbage time thus far, while Liberty has been below average in preventing havoc and sits outside the top 90 in points per scoring opportunity.
Liberty should win this game, and maybe it will be fairly comfortable, but I’m not laying two touchdowns with a team that’s barely been tested lately and faces an uphill battle from a situational perspective. Liberty played Friday night, so the Flames will have less than a week to prepare for this game. Like I mentioned earlier, Sam Houston was idle last week. The back door will be open here; lean ‘Kats.
Sam Houston vs Liberty prediction: Sam Houston State Bearkats +14 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +13.
