The cardinal rule is never to turn your back on two top ACC programs just because they've fallen out of, or have yet to crack, the Top 25. Florida State is an underrated 3-2 team, while Louisville may simply be the best 2-4 team in the country. The Cardinals have suffered three heartbreaking losses, all by exactly three points, against very good ranked or soon-to-be-ranked opponents. As frustrating as that is, it also shows Louisville is just nine points away from being 5-1 and more than capable of hanging with the best teams in the nation. Meanwhile, FSU has scored at least 34 points in four of its five games, with both losses coming against ranked opponents.
Two unique squads with very different circumstances will meet Friday night in a matchup that could reshape the narrative for both teams. Louisville will look to finally break its string of close losses while becoming the first unranked team to hand Florida State a defeat. To do that, the Cardinals will likely need to hold the Seminoles below their usual 34-to-38-point range, force them closer to their season-low output of 24, and keep pace offensively all the way to the final whistle. More importantly, they'll need to create a wider margin of separation than the three points that have defined so many of their games this season.
Both of these squads are built for speed and scoring points, and both coaching staffs know it. If either team wants to gain the upper hand, they'll likely need to try something different. One side, or perhaps both, may choose to slow the pace, lean more heavily on the running game, and place a greater emphasis on defense. There's no guarantee both teams will embrace that approach, but all it takes is one to shorten the game, limit possessions, and prevent the opposing offense from finding the end zone drive after drive. With both teams looking to change their narrative, I expect a close contest played mostly in the mid-20s to low 30s, with a combined score landing just low enough to stay under 59.5.
Louisville vs Florida State prediction: Under 59.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to under 58.5 (-110).
