Don't look now, but Stanford has won its last two games and scored 31 and 34 points while doing so. Will they be able to keep the streak alive in Louisville this Saturday? I doubt it. The Cardinal appear outmatched on both sides of the ball, and they have yet to score more than seven points in a road game this season. Louisville has done close to the opposite, putting up at least 27 points in every game and 78 in its last two alone. The Cardinals' speed on offense and ability to create big plays should be too much for a Stanford team that has struggled mightily whenever it leaves the West Coast.
Although Stanford sits at 4-4, all four of its wins have come at home, where the Cardinal have played five of their eight games. In their three road games, they've been outscored by a combined margin of 150-17. That's a troubling statistic considering how explosive Louisville can be. The Cardinals average 38.7 points per game compared to Stanford's 19.9, and they generate 484.6 total yards per contest. Stanford's rush defense has also struggled, allowing 187.6 yards on the ground per game. That doesn't bode well against a Louisville offense capable of moving the ball in multiple ways and putting points on the board in a hurry.
Travel has not been Stanford's forte, and scoring points on the road hasn't been either, despite the offensive uptick over the last two weeks. Louisville has shown it can put points on the board against just about anyone, and the Cardinals are especially dangerous at home. Between Stanford's road woes and its defensive struggles, I'll gladly side with the home team and its high-flying offense. Twenty-two points is a large spread, but I see Louisville creating plenty of separation and finishing ahead by three touchdowns and more.
Louisville vs Stanford prediction: Louisville Cardinals -21.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -22.5 (-115).
