Alabama vs. LSU seemingly always provides intrigue, and this year’s matchup absolutely does just that. Coming off a mutual bye, both programs head into the final month of the regular season with two losses. Given who those losses came to, I don’t foresee the loser of this game being completely eliminated from College Football Playoff contention – I guess it depends on the context of the game.
Postseason ramifications aside, the biggest story ahead of this game is health. As of Friday afternoon, Alabama WR Ryan Coleman-Williams, C Racin Delgatty and DL Terrance Green are all expected to play. OL William Sanders is a game-time decision, and there are rumblings DB Zabien Brown will return as well. Meanwhile, LSU LB Whit Weeks is doubtful.
Given Alabama’s apparent return to health, coming out of a bye, this seems like the spot to buy low on the Tide, but I don’t love the matchup for them. LSU’s defense has wreaked havoc on its opponents over the last month and a half, pun intended, sitting sixth in total havoc generated and 15th in front-seven havoc generated outside of garbage time since Week 4. That could be disastrous for an Alabama offensive line that, though getting healthier, still sits outside the top 115 in sacks allowed and 96th in tackles for loss allowed (CFBStats).
The Tigers also excel at limiting big plays, particularly through the air. Since Week 4, they’re the best in the country in limiting pass explosiveness (CollegeFootballData), while sitting top-20 in passes of at least 10 yards allowed over the course of the entire year.
Alabama may get their guys back, but how effective will they be in a hostile environment? The fact that this is an afternoon game dampens some of the home-field advantage, but trust me, Baton Rouge will still be on fire come 3:30 PM ET. Going against coach Kalen DeBoer out of a bye is a tough proposition, especially at a number like this, but I also trust Lane Kiffin in these big games and ultimately think the Tigers defense will make the most difference. Slight lean to the Tigers.
Alabama vs LSU prediction: LSU Tigers -6 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -115.
