I missed the bottom of this market. DraftKings, BetMGM and BetRivers fell from 58.5 to 56.5 on Monday night, and they and FanDuel are back at 57.5 now, with BetMGM and DraftKings dealing the over at -108. I'm still on it at 57.5, because neither defense got any better this week. Both defenses are among the worst in the country against FBS opponents. Maryland allows 39.2 points per game in those games (130th) and Rutgers allows 38.5 (127th) while giving up 7.27 yards per play. Maryland has allowed 48 at Nebraska and 54 to UCLA; Rutgers gave up 37 at home to UMass in its opener.
Maryland's offense is the weak spot in this over, scoring 21.2 points per game against FBS teams. Against the right opponent, though, they can score (38 vs Uconn, 26 vs Virginia Tech and 23 vs Nebraska). Rutgers allows 215.8 rushing yards per game to FBS offenses, 128th in the country, and Maryland throws 38.8 times a game into a Rutgers pass defense that ranks 100th. Rutgers seems like that "right opponent." Four of Maryland's six games (including 71 points at Nebraska) and four of Rutgers' five would have cleared this total. The public projection I lean on most has it at 59.2, almost two points above where the market sits. The College Park forecast is sunny with a high near 55.
Rutgers vs Maryland prediction: Over 57.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 58.5 (-110).
