The Tigers were seemingly defanged on national television last Friday, suffering a 31-17 loss to Tulane. What the score doesn't reveal is that Memphis actually out-gained the Green Wave in total yardage, but six turnovers ultimately proved to be the death blow. The Tigers piled up 488 yards of offense and still lost by two touchdowns. Four interceptions and two lost fumbles will have that effect. On Thursday night, Memphis welcomes East Carolina -- and a six-turnover performance feels highly unlikely to repeat itself. Even so, I expect the Tigers to take a more measured approach -- placing an emphasis on procedure, precision and ball security rather than chasing big plays and glory every down.
East Carolina heads to Memphis with a 3-3 record, having won two of its last three games. The Pirates' lone loss during that stretch came in overtime against UAB, a game the Pirates appeared well on their way to winning. What stands out most is their recent defensive play. Excluding the points UAB scored in overtime, East Carolina has held each of its last four opponents to 17 points or fewer through regulation -- with two of those teams managing 12 points or fewer. Just as impressive, each of the Pirates' last five games has finished with 51 total points or fewer -- even with the extra 13 points scored during the UAB overtime period. Continuing that defensive trend will likely be a top priority when East Carolina travels to Memphis on Thursday night.
Coming off a nationally televised embarrassment would likely make any team question its approach, or at least consider a few adjustments. I believe we'll see exactly that from Memphis: a tighter, more disciplined game plan with an emphasis on ball security rather than trying to prove it's still the fifth-highest scoring offense in the nation. Combine that with East Carolina's strong defense and its recent history of low-scoring games, and I believe this matchup stays comfortably under the 54.5.
East Carolina vs Memphis prediction: Under 54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 53.5.
