The impressive effort we saw from Florida State against Virginia was extremely short-lived, as they were simply overmatched in Louisville last week. Context aside, it’s not going to get any easier for FSU this weekend, when they hit the road for the second straight game – this time to Hard Rock Stadium to play the national runners-up in the Miami Hurricanes. The ‘Noles are already overmatched against the ‘Canes to begin with, which makes the added week of rest and preparation from which Miami benefited ahead of this contest almost unfair.
Outside of a lazy second half at Wake Forest, the Hurricanes have absolutely dominated their opponents. The Demon Deacons were the only team to score more than 13 points against this defense, while Miami has surpassed 40 points themselves in four out of five contests. In fact, the Hurricanes are top-six nationally in yards per play, PPA per play, success rate, points per scoring opportunity and standard downs outside of garbage time. Florida State’s defense is not built to stop Miami’s offense. The Seminoles are outside the top 100 in yards per play, PPA per play, success rate and stuff rate, and they surrender an average of 25.3 points and over 400 yards per game.
In Tuscaloosa, the Seminoles surrendered 50 points and 567 yards to the Crimson Tide, which is about what I’m expecting this week for Miami. The Seminoles did cover that game in Alabama, but against a rested defense that has surrendered fewer than 10 points per game and only eight total red-zone attempts, I have a hard time seeing the Seminoles replicating that offensive performance against the ‘Canes. Moreover, the Miami defense has an average of two takeaways per game in their last three contests, which is notable because FSU QB Ashton Daniels is a turnover waiting to happen, having tallied an ACC-worst seven interceptions to this point – including at least one in every game except at home against SMU.
Looking at last year’s matchup just at surface level, Florida State played Miami very close in what was a 28-22 win for the Hurricanes. However, digging deeper into the context of that matchup, Miami had a 28-3 lead going into the fourth quarter before the ‘Noles put up 19 unanswered in garbage time. I don’t see that happening again after a bye week. It’s all Miami for me here.
Florida State vs Miami prediction: Miami -21 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -23.
