The Pitt Panthers were riding high at 4-0 before they lost their starting quarterback during the Virginia Tech game, which they somehow still managed to win to move to 5-0. Since then, Pitt lost to North Carolina and Boston College, scoring no more than 21 points in either game, while they rank outside the top 100 in PPA per pass and bottom-50 in passing success rate in those two weeks. That’s less than ideal when playing on the road for the second consecutive week and third time in the last four weeks, this time against the nation’s #1 team. This Pitt squad also hasn’t had its bye yet.
After Miami’s dominating win at Clemson, the Hurricanes had a week off, following which they hosted their in-state rival, Florida State. The ‘Canes needed two overtimes to beat the ‘Noles despite being three-score favorites, failing to separate at any point in the game. The 35 points Florida State scored were by far the most Miami surrendered at any point this season, which is certainly a concern ahead of this matchup with Pitt. However, I don’t think the Panthers are capable of scoring like the Seminoles given the quarterback situation. Just look at Clemson, for example. With an inexperienced and currently-overmatched quarterback, the Tigers put up only 13 points and turned the ball over twice. That’s about what I’m expecting from Pitt here, especially with fatigue potentially playing a factor.
Miami’s defense is one of the top units in the country, but the Hurricanes can be exposed in the secondary, which is not something Pitt’s current quarterback room can exploit. That makes the Panthers a bit one-dimensional offensively, while it feeds right into Miami’s strength defensively. For reference, the ‘Canes are eighth nationally in PPA per rush and second in rush success allowed outside of garbage time since Week 2.
Like Miami, Pitt is vulnerable in the secondary, but the Hurricanes are actually equipped to exploit those vulnerabilities. The Panthers are outside the top 70 in PPA per pass and 132nd in pass explosiveness in the last six weeks, while they’re outside the top 120 in passes of at least 20 yards allowed and only two teams have surrendered more 50-yard passes than them. I don’t see this unit containing Miami’s offense, which ranks first in PPA per pass and second in pass success rate in that span.
Pitt vs Miami prediction: Miami Hurricanes -19.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -20.5 (-110).
