Few teams in the SEC have looked better than Mississippi State, and it's startling to see the Bulldogs look way better than preseason expectations this early in the year. Almost all of that has to do with Kamario Taylor as the young superstar quarterback has looked like one of the best in the nation at his position to this point. The same can't be said for Missouri, who needed all 60 minutes to survive an upset bid from a very mediocre Troy team a week ago at home. Eli Drinkwitz's group was not a team that I was high on prior to the season, and nothing I've seen through three weeks has changed that opinion. However, I do think we're seeing a bit of an overreaction to Mississippi State's hot start now that the Bulldogs are laying nearly a full touchdown in this one. I can't get there with the favorite, but I'm not looking to back the underdog on the road. Instead, I'll look toward the total in this matchup.
With 12 total touchdowns over the first three games — including multiple contests against Power 4 opponents — Taylor sure looks the part and he should continue to cook against a Missouri defense that is outside the top 60 in late down conversion rate allowed and 67th in points per quality possession allowed, despite playing a much softer schedule than Mississippi State thus far. As for the hosts, Zach Arnett's defense is improved compared to previous seasons, but they still allowed 34 points and well over 400 yards to South Carolina in their first SEC game a week ago. Missouri should be able to run the ball with Jamal Roberts and as long as Austin Simmons doesn't completely melt down on the road, I expect Missouri to score in the upper 20s in this one. Let's roll with the over in Starkville.
Missouri vs Mississippi State prediction: Over 58.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 59.
