After winning Conference USA last year, the Kennesaw State Owls fell victim to the transfer portal, and it shows in the results. After last week’s 27-26 loss to Jax State, the Owls have yet to beat an FBS opponent. They were close the last two weeks, losing twice by just four total points combined, but alas, the Owls haven’t won since Week 1 against FCS West Georgia. Like Kennesaw State, the Missouri State Bears haven’t beaten an FBS team. Their lone win was over FCS Lindenwood, but their strength of schedule has been harder than the Owls’.
These teams aren’t that far apart in terms of talent and upside. The Owls and Bears are outside the top 100 in scoring, and both stop-units sit outside the top 100 in total defense, third-down conversion rate and yards per play. Moreover, the Owls have been horrible in the red-zone, surrendering scores on all 16 opposing red-zone opportunities – 12 being touchdowns. The Bears’ defense has been in the red zone a ton this year, but that unit has at least limited scoring a bit better, holding opponents to 14 touchdowns on 24 attempts. Keep in mind, the Bears played Texas A&M and SMU – superior opponents with veteran quarterbacks. The Owls have seen only Tennessee from the power-conference level, who operated with a freshman quarterback.
On top of their defensive struggles, this is a horrible spot for the Owls, with this road trip being sandwiched between hosting Jax State and Liberty. In what projects to be an even matchup, give me the home team catching points.
Kennesaw State vs Missouri State prediction: Missouri State Bears +3.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.5 (-105).
