The Maryland Terrapins were 2-0 SU and ATS through two weeks, but since then, they’re 0-2 SU and ATS after allowing 89 points combined at home to Virginia Tech and UCLA in consecutive weeks to end September. Things won’t get any easier for the Terps this weekend when they head to Lincoln to play in their first truly hostile environment of the season. The Cornhuskers are a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, and they’ve outscored their inferior opponents by 104 points through three home games. In fact, they haven’t surrendered more than 21 points in any game this season.
Maryland has some talent in QB Malik Washington and WR Chris Durr Jr., but there’s not a ton surrounding them. The Terps offensive line is not great, nor are the running backs considering their top two average fewer than 4.0 yards per carry and don’t have much explosiveness.
As I alluded to earlier, the defense hasn’t been very good, either. Not only have the Terps allowed almost 90 points in the last two weeks, but they’ve surrendered more than 900 yards as well. Plus, they rank outside the top 115 in points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time and red-zone touchdown rate.
Nebraska has been very good offensively, scoring at least 30 points in every game to this point. The Huskers rank top-10 turnover margin per game, third-down conversion rate, PPA per play and points per scoring opportunity, while they sit top-30 in a multitude of other offensive metrics. Their defense has also been solid, sitting top-25 in PPA per play, yards per play, havoc generated and opposing points per scoring opportunity. Moreover, the Huskers have only surrendered an average of two red-zone opportunities per game, while they have converted 14 of their 17 red-zone attempts for touchdowns themselves. The red-zone production certainly favors the hosts heavily in this matchup.
With Indiana and Oregon on deck for Nebraska, there may not be much value in laying over two touchdowns with the Cornhuskers. My cut-off would be -14. However, I trust the offense to put up points against this Maryland defense given what we’ve seen from the Terps the last two weeks at home. Virginia Tech and UCLA are good offenses – top-35 in PPA per play, scoring and success rate – and Nebraska is right on the same level as them. The Cornhuskers run game has been extremely strong, and the aerial attack should be able to pick apart this Terrapin defense that sits 89th in PPA per pass and 111th in success rate allowed. Not to mention the Maryland turnover issues that we saw last week. Any short field will likely lead to Nebraska points.
Maryland vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska Cornhuskers team total over 34.5 (+100) at the time of publishing. Playable to -120.
