Three-point losses in consecutive weeks to Indiana and at Oregon is nothing to hang your head over if you’re the Cornhuskers. Sure, it probably stings twice over considering the ‘Huskers led both games late, but the bye week helps to recalibrate, get healthy and focus on the task that lies ahead rather than dwell on the past. Speaking of health, both teams have injury news to note. Per Washington coach Jedd Fisch, the starting quarterback decision will be made at game time as Demond Williams continues to mend from a rib injury, while Nebraska’s running-back depth is hampered – though it sounds like Jamal Rule is on his way to suiting up this weekend.
Regardless of who plays at quarterback for Washington, I’m leaning toward the home team in this matchup. The Cornhuskers have a decent defensive advantage over the Huskies, ranking 14th in scoring (15.4 PPG), ninth in total defense (271.3 YPG), 16th in yards per play (4.5), first in third-down conversion rate, ninth in red-zone touchdown rate and top-25 in both sacks and tackles for loss. Digging a bit deeper, since Week 3, Nebraska’s defense ranks top-10 in success rate, points per scoring opportunity, standard downs rate, passing downs PPA and PPA per pass outside of garbage time. By all accounts, they’re a solid defense that can overload Washington’s offensive line – a unit that is outside the top 85 in stuff rate allowed and line yards and outside the top 120 in front-seven havoc allowed since Week 3.
Keep an eye on QB Anthony Colandrea as a runner; he’s a very strong runner out of the backfield, which is not a dynamic Washington has seen since Weeks 1 and 2. If you remember, the Huskies vastly underperformed in those games despite massive talent advantages against Wazzu and Utah State. Now arguably at a talent disadvantage, on the road, two time zones away? Ouch, that's tough, even off a bye.
The Huskies took money immediately after open, but I’m not reading much into it. The market has overrated the Huskies all season, consistently buying this team despite a 2-5 ATS mark. Nebraska is 6-1 ATS, and that figures to improve Saturday thanks to the confluence of having the better defense and home-field advantage under the lights on primetime.
Washington vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska Cornhuskers -7.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.5 (-105).
