When a number drops like a rock, sometimes confidence can fall right along with it. A battle of Wolves breaks out this weekend in Reno, and both teams' defensive prowess has the public engaged in a bidding war to the bottom. New Mexico started the year as one of the highest-scoring offenses in the nation but has recently slowed down, especially since conference play began, scoring exactly 21 points in each of its last three games. Nevada, on the other side, was shut out by #5 UCLA last week and has been held to four touchdowns or fewer in three straight contests. However, I have a feeling that when these two forces collide on Saturday, they'll remember the offenses that got them here in the first place, and an offensive battle will break out in the Biggest Little City in the World.
The Nevada Wolf Pack left Los Angeles with a bruised ego after being shut out on a national stage. Returning home presents an opportunity to make amends. While their 3-5 record doesn't jump off the page, Nevada has been competitive more often than not and may be better than the standings suggest. On the other side, New Mexico's offense has cooled after a scorching start to the season, but context matters. Their recent scoring dip has come against better defensive competition, and Nevada, while solid defensively, may not be equipped to completely contain the Lobos. If New Mexico gets near the 30-point mark, which feels well within reach, Nevada wouldn't need much offensive success of its own for this total to sneak past a number that has been pushed perhaps a little too low.
This line opened as high as 43.5 and has been bought down to the current 36.5. I believe it's an overreaction to recent trends and one we can take advantage of. Nevada will likely come out aggressive after an embarrassing shutout on national television, which could lead to points of their own or mistakes that hand favorable field position and easy scoring opportunities to New Mexico. The Lobos have all the tools needed to score and score often. It's this combination of ingredients that leads me to believe the market has overcorrected, setting the stage for a clean over and a Friday night winner.
Nevada vs New Mexico prediction: Over 36.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to over 38.5 (-115).
