Los Lobos have slowly and quietly clawed their way into the Top 25, which is never an easy feat for a Mountain West program. Much of their success can be credited to a defense that ranks #1 in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.9 points per game. New Mexico also boasts an offense averaging 34.6 points per contest, but it's their defense that has carried them to this point. They'll face another tough team on Saturday when they welcome conference foe UNLV to Albuquerque, a program that knows them as well as anyone.
Through nine games, New Mexico has established itself as one of the nation's best defenses. The downside of that success is that every opponent now has a full season's worth of tape to study. With conference rival UNLV still chasing the Lobos in the standings and possessing one of the Mountain West's better offenses, this feels like a spot where New Mexico's defense will be tested. However, being tested and being beaten are two very different things. The Lobos have consistently found answers all season long and have shown little reason to doubt them now
I don't think UNLV will be shut down completely, but I also don't see the Rebels breaking this game wide open. They sit 7-2, still harbor Mountain West championship aspirations, and should keep things competitive throughout. The difference is that both teams have enough respect for what is at stake to avoid turning this into a track meet. I see a close, disciplined contest that spends most of the afternoon in the upper 30s to mid-40s rather than racing into the 50s. For that reason, the under 46.5 points is where I'll be putting my money.
New Mexico vs UNLV best bet: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to under 44.5 (-110).
