I'm taking New Mexico State to beat WKU to open my Thursday college football parlay. The Aggies offer a great buy-low opportunity after losses to Hawaii and New Mexico, and their offenses poses great upside that can take advantage of this weak Western Kentucky defense.
To wrap up this CFB parlay, let's take North Texas to beat Tulsa as a small underdog. Tulsa's offense has a ton of limitations that should enable UNT to stick around, especially behind QB Tayven Jackson, who has a 74% completion percentage. The Mean Green look good value to snag the win on Thursday night.
I'm banking on points being scored between Pitt and Virginia Tech to open my CFB parlay on Friday night. Both offenses hold advantages over the opposing defenses in this matchup. The Hokies are averaging 34 ppg against FBS opponents, while the Panthers rank 25th in the nation adjusted EPA per play and have a quarterback in Mason Heintschel that has thrown 13 touchdowns to just one interception.
I'm sticking with the points theme and backing the over when Delaware hosts Liberty. The Flames have outscored their opponents 109-55 in their three victories this season, while QB Deshawn Purdie has been dealing. As for the Blue Hens, they're averaging 23.3 ppg despite coming up against Vanderbilt and Virginia. Liberty should be a softer opponent here and the Delaware offense should capitalize.
To wrap up our Friday CFB parlay, I'm taking Northwestern to pull the small upset and knock off Penn State at home. The Nittany Lions were beaten by Wisconsin last week on a wild final play, and they'll no doubt be licking their wounds here. Northwestern meanwhile should be galvanized after pushing Indiana to the limit last Friday. The Wildcats boast a sturdy defense and can generate enough offense to get the better of Penn State.
To begin my Saturday CFB parlay, I'm taking Air Force to beat Navy. This Navy offense is a shell of itself, and now the Midshipmen have to travel out west to play an Air Force team with a better quarterback that seeking revenge after last year's 34-31 loss while catching double digits. Navy's Blake Horvath was the catalyst for the Middies' success in that game, and he's no longer in the picture in Annapolis.
Following a bye week, BYU is laying 6.5 points on the road at TCU, while the Horned Frogs are coming off a loss at UCF that included four turnovers. This TCU squad is 0-2 SU/ATS against Power Four competition, and given the struggles of their FCS transfer quarterback, they don't have much going for them against a better BYU team other than playing this game at home. Still, the bye week for the Cougars may negate that, as will the fact that BYU is second nationally in PPA per play and first in success rate outside of garbage time. TCU is outside the top 70 in those metrics. The Horned Frogs will play desperate at home here, so the back door may be open. In a more prudent move, I'll round out this CFB parlay with the money line rather than the spread.
Behind Cam Cook and dual-threat QB Michael Hawkins Jr., the West Virginia Mountaineers have a lethal rushing attack that leads the country in yards per game against FBS opponents. The 'Neers seem a bit undervalued here after a home loss to Oklahoma State, while Iowa State might bet getting too much credit simply for playing this game in Ames. The Cyclones just gave up more than 200 rushing yards and 6.0 yards per carry at home against Utah last week in a two-score loss. Expect WVU to control time of possession and keep ISU's offense off the field.
