Maryland's team total sits at 10.5, and the under already costs -125 at BetMGM and -138 at FanDuel. The risk is the fourth quarter: Ohio State has allowed a touchdown in the final quarter of all three games it has played against Power Four teams.
Through three quarters, those same teams scored three, 13 and six points, and Ohio State's defense is built to take away what Maryland does most. The Buckeyes rank fourth in the country in pass efficiency defense, allowing 5.1 yards per attempt and two touchdown passes all season, and Maryland throws 42.3 times a game against FBS teams at 6.5 yards per attempt.
Maryland can't lean on the run to change the picture, ranking 124th in rushing against FBS opponents at 3.29 yards per carry, and it converts 30.4% of its third downs in those games, 116th in the country. When the Terrapins reach the red zone, they score -- 13 times in 14 trips against FBS teams --- but Ohio State has allowed only nine red-zone trips in five games.
This is also a look-ahead spot for Ohio State, which plays at unbeaten #7 Indiana next week, and the Buckeyes have every reason to build a lead, run the clock and get to that game healthy -- which is the best answer to the fourth-quarter risk. The books are leaning under, too: both BetMGM and FanDuel are charging more for the under than the over, at -125 against +105 and -138 against +108.
Maryland vs Ohio State prediction: Maryland Terrapins team total under 10.5 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.5 (-140).
