This one depends on the 7. BetMGM, DraftKings and BetRivers are dealing Kentucky +7, with BetMGM's -110 the best price, while FanDuel has +6.5, and a touchdown Oklahoma win would push at +7 but lose at +6.5. I'll take the 7 at BetMGM, not the 6.5 at FanDuel. Oklahoma hasn't beaten an FBS team other than UTEP by more than eight points. The Sooners beat New Mexico 14-6 as 21-point favorites and Texas 27-24 last week, and their offense scores 23.0 points per game against FBS teams (tied for 83rd). They average 5.01 yards per play (121st) while running for just 95.8 yards a game (122nd).
Oklahoma's defense is why this line sits at a touchdown, allowing 4.65 yards per play to FBS teams, ninth in the country. Kentucky scored 35 against both South Carolina and LSU anyway, and it has turned the ball over just five times in six games. In a game totaled at 43.5, seven points is a lot of cushion. Kentucky has already won three games outright as an underdog, including at Texas A&M as a 16.5-point underdog and against LSU as a 9.5-point underdog, and it has covered five of six. The market has handed back a half-point, too, with DraftKings and BetRivers moving from +6.5 early Sunday to +7 by Sunday night.
Kentucky vs Oklahoma prediction: Kentucky +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
