One blown 17-point lead in conference play can derail a team’s season, let alone two in three weeks like the Gamecocks suffered against Mississippi State and Kentucky – both at home. Since then, South Carolina has found a second wind, demolishing Florida in Gainesville before a bye and then knocking off #11 Tennessee at home in a game in which they let another double-digit lead slip away.
On the other side, Oklahoma is fresh off a road win at Mississippi State, but take that result with a grain of salt. While Kamario Taylor started the game for the Bulldogs, he exited very early due to another injury, leaving the offense in the hands of Parker Puckett – a significant downgrade from Taylor. Prior to that, like South Carolina, the Sooners lost at home to Kentucky after a double-digit comeback win over rival Texas in Red River.
Regardless of opponent, Oklahoma doesn’t really profile as a team I feel comfortable laying points with. The Sooners are 110th in scoring, 114th in total offense and 128th in turnover margin this season (CFBStats), while they’re 128th or worse in PPA per play, success rate and points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time since Week 3. The Gamecocks aren’t world-beaters offensively, but they can move the ball down the field with the SEC’s leading rushing unit.
Oklahoma QB John Mateer played a clean game last week, but that’s not the norm for him. In fact, it was his first power-conference matchup without multiple turnover-worthy plays (PFF) this season. More mistakes are likely on the horizon against Dylan Stewart and South Carolina’s defensive front, as the Sooners offensive line is 118th in havoc allowed over the last six weeks, as well as 107th in sacks on the year.
South Carolina vs Oklahoma prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks +5.5 (-108) at the time of publishing. Playable to +3 (-110).
