The Oklahoma State Cowboys have an electric offense behind the arm of UNT transfer QB Drew Mestemaker, and I’m looking for that success to continue at home against a bad Colorado defense, despite the loss the Pokes just suffered on the road to Houston last week.
For reference, OK State has scored at least 39 points in every home game this year, and they’ve fallen short of five touchdowns just twice – in Week 1 and last week when they put 32 on Houston in a three-point loss. In total, they average more than 37 points per game, sit fifth nationally in total offense and rank seventh in yards per play, as they are top-six nationally in success rate, standard downs and total scoring opportunities outside of garbage time since Week 2. They’re particularly elite through the air, where Mestemaker sits sixth in FBS in passing yards and has two top-50 wide receivers, including his former UNT teammate Wyatt Young – who has 561 yards and five scores. They’re strong on the ground, too, thanks to yet another UNT transfer in Caleb Hawkins, who has almost 600 yards rushing on 123 carries (both top-25 marks).
Colorado’s defensive metrics aren’t bad; the Buffalos are top-40 in yards per play, PPA per play and success rate allowed. However, they haven’t seen many offenses that can threaten down the field like this Pokes offense. In fact, the only other offense Colorado has seen that ranks top-15 in passing efficiency outside of garbage time over the last six weeks was Northwestern, and the Wildcats put 41 on the Buffs.
The Buffaloes are top-10 in seconds per play, while they rank 115th in scoring opportunities allowed over the last six weeks and 117th in red-zone opportunities allowed this season. The Cowboys should have ample scoring opportunities given the expected pace of this game, and I trust their offense to finish those opportunities with a touchdown more often than not. \
Colorado vs Oklahoma State prediction: Oklahoma State Cowboys team total over 34.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.
