Auburn went into Georgia and beat the No. 1 team in the nation, only to lose at home versus LSU the following week. Ole Miss lost to Florida four weeks ago and then Texas last week, both on the road. What do those results have to do with one another? They contributed to Ole Miss being listed as less than a two-touchdown favorite at home against Auburn. I believe that's an overreaction by the oddsmakers, one that could create a lot of value on the Rebels at -13.5.
Although it's hard to say any two SEC teams don't dislike each other, the rivalry between Georgia and Auburn is one of the oldest in the Deep South. Emotions ran high when the Tigers visited the Bulldogs, and Georgia made several costly mistakes. A late Gunner Stockton fumble and allowing Byrum Brown to rush for 115 yards and a touchdown are two great examples. Ole Miss has had trouble stopping the run at times, but the Rebels held Vanderbilt to 107 rushing yards three weeks ago and kept Missouri to just 39 on the ground the week before last. They've also improved in the turnover game, forcing four takeaways against Vanderbilt and three against Texas. It seems less likely the Rebels will lose because of a critical late mistake and may even hand Auburn its first turnover in several games. Ole Miss will be without star running back Kewan Lacy on Saturday, but his workload had already begun to decrease in recent weeks. The Rebels still have multiple capable backs behind him, plus one of the nation's most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks to help carry the load. Overall, after losing to Texas on the road last week and showing improvement defensively and in turnover margin, I expect Ole Miss to enter this matchup motivated and prepared for the Tigers.
If Ole Miss wants to win and win comfortably, it must contain the run and, more importantly, keep Byrum Brown from escaping the pocket and extending drives. I believe the Rebels will be prepared on both sides of the ball and respond well after last week's loss to Texas. I like Ole Miss to win by 17 points or more, which is why I'm not rebelling against the Rebels at -13.5. In fact, I like it a lot.
Ole Miss vs Auburn prediction: Ole Miss -13.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -15.5 (-115).
