The USC Trojans looked dominant in non-conference play, but since Big Ten play started, they have looked anything but dominant. They went to Rutgers and barely won, then they were simply overmatched against Oregon before barely surviving last week against Washington. Now, they head out east again, where they do not play well, to face a Penn State team that is simply a dumpster fire now that conference play has started, blowing a lead at home to Wisconsin before getting smoked by Northwestern last Friday.
Penn State hasn’t done anything to merit a bet, but USC head coach Lincoln Riley has been a fade any time the Trojans play in the central or eastern time zone. Since USC joined the Big Ten, the Trojans are 3-4 SU and 0-7 ATS in those two time zones; their wins came against Purdue last year, Nebraska last year when Dylan Raiola was injured mid-game and Rutgers this year – a team that was handled by UMass. Considering those results, and how USC has looked in conference play this year, I can’t get behind betting the Trojans despite the plus-money price. If I’m betting this game, I’m plugging my nose and taking Penn State. After all, this is a White Out game, so the environment should be pretty hostile in Happy Valley.
USC vs Penn State prediction: Penn State ML (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
