San Jose State may be getting healthy at exactly the right time. The Spartans spent part of the season navigating key injuries, but they now enter Saturday's matchup in a much stronger position than they were just a few weeks ago. That is bad news for a Northern Illinois team that sits 0-8 and has struggled to consistently put together four complete quarters. To the Huskies' credit, they usually find a way to scratch out points and avoid completely disappearing offensively, which is one reason a double-digit spread has its ugly side. However, the Spartans are sharp on both sides of the ball, a dual threat just too deep for UNI to handle.
The Spartans have been at their best when they can lean on their ground game and allow their defense to control the flow of the game. That formula becomes even more valuable against a Northern Illinois team that has spent much of the season playing from behind. While the Huskies have shown flashes of competitiveness, they have not shown an ability to consistently stop quality rushing attacks or sustain enough offense to keep pace for four quarters. San Jose State, meanwhile, should be able to control possession, win the field-position battle, and gradually wear down a defense that has been on the field far too often this year.
I don't expect Northern Illinois to be completely shut out, but I do expect San Jose State's defense and rushing attack to be the difference. I had San Jose last week versus the #22 team in the nation, New Mexico, the Spartans were a 13.5-point underdog, they finished the game just five points behind. Point being, with running back Jabari Bates back in the lineup, this Spartan team is better than their record suggests. I like the Spartans to find separation late, making San Jose State -9.5 the right side.
San Jose State vs Northern Illinois prediction: San Jose State Spartans -9.5 (-115). Playable to -10 (-110).
