It's been a few games since the Mustangs have truly run wild, as they've scored fewer than four touchdowns in each of their last two contests. SMU put up 23 points against Virginia last week and 25 against Boston College the week before, a game in which the Mustangs seemingly invented ways to stay under by missing two two-point conversions and a point-after attempt. That said, they likely won't have the same problem against a reeling California squad this Saturday in Dallas and should be able to put plenty of points on the board. The real question is: will Cal be able to do its part and help push this game into the mid-50s?
The Golden Bears arguably looked more like Gummy Bears last Saturday, suffering an embarrassing 41-7 loss to Wake Forest at home. They'll be searching for redemption this weekend in Texas, but reality may have something else in store. SMU has climbed to #23 in the rankings for a reason. The Mustangs sit at 5-1, are a perfect 4-0 at home, and have allowed 24 points or fewer in each of those four victories, with three opponents failing to reach 17. While Cal may put up more of a fight than it did a week ago, I just don't see a path to the Bears scoring much more than 20 points.
California enters this matchup looking to bounce back from one of its worst performances of the season, but SMU presents another difficult challenge. The Mustangs should have success offensively at home, yet if Cal struggles to contribute on the scoreboard as I expect, this total may have a difficult time reaching the mid-50s. Give me the under.
SMU vs California prediction: Under 54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.
