SMU and Virginia Tech both average roughly 35 points per game, which likely explains why oddsmakers posted a total in the mid-50s. The problem is that recent trends suggest this number may be a bit too ambitious. Virginia Tech has seen four of its last five games finish with 54 points or fewer, including wins over Boston College and Clemson in which the Hokies allowed just 14 and 16 points respectively. Their defense has quietly become one of the better units in the ACC, allowing only 20.5 points per game while ranking among the nation's best against the run.
SMU brings a dangerous passing attack into this matchup, but the Mustangs may find moving the football consistently more difficult than they've become accustomed to. Virginia Tech has shown a willingness to control the clock, averaging more than 32 minutes of possession per game, which can shorten contests and reduce total possessions. Meanwhile, SMU's defense ranks near the top of the conference in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert only 27% of their opportunities.
While both offenses are capable of explosive plays, this feels more like a competitive conference game than a track meet. Virginia Tech's defense is good enough to force a few empty drives, and the Hokies' deliberate style should help keep the pace under control. In a game that could easily land somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-24 or 30-23, I'll gladly back the under 56.5.
SMU vs Virginia Tech prediction: Under 56.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to under 55.5 (-115).
