The Tennessee Volunteers come into this game at 6-1 following a dominant win over Alabama at home, 26-10. I don’t want to discredit the win for the Vols, as they thoroughly deserved and earned the win after holding the Crimson Tide to just 201 total yards, but it was a tremendous situational spot for the Vols. Alabama went into Knoxville beaten and battered after a loss in a physical game against Georgia the week prior, resulting in a flat effort on the road against Tennessee. Now, the Vols are in a flat spot themselves after such an emotional win in one of the bigger SEC rivalries known as the “Third Saturday in October,” after which the winner’s fanbase celebrates with cigars in the stadium.
Tennessee’s win over Alabama was impressive, but let’s not forget the effort they put forth on the road at Arkansas. The Vols barely won that game due to three turnovers, which makes sense given their inexperience under center, but isn’t exactly settling considering South Carolina is typically very opportunistic under DC Clayton White. Because of said inexperience at the quarterback position, the Vols deploy a run-heavy offense, which plays right into South Carolina’s strengths defensively. For reference, the Gamecocks are top-40 in PPA per rush and top-10 in rush explosiveness allowed outside of garbage time since Week 2, while they’re top-25 in rush yards allowed per game and top-30 in yards per rush allowed (CFBStats). If SC can limit Tennessee’s ground game, I like the chances of Dylan Stewart and the Gamecock front creating chaos in the face of Tennessee FR QB George MacIntyre, especially considering the Vols are outside the top 100 in front-seven havoc allowed in the last six weeks. In fact, MacIntyre has faced 22 pressures on 78 dropbacks against FBS opponents – 14 in his 63 dropbacks over the last two weeks (PFF).
The Gamecocks found something in Gainesville in a dominating win over Florida as double-digit underdogs. Now fresh off a bye week playing at home against a team yet to have its bye, South Carolina looks to continue that momentum and forget the pair of blown 17-point leads at home they endured earlier this season. This could easily be a 5-1 football team, and if that was the case, the perception of this program would be vastly different right now.
I’m not confident Tennessee’s quarterback situation would allow for the Vols to spring a big comeback like Mississippi State and Kentucky if they were to fall behind early, which is absolutely a possibility against a rested South Carolina squad that is hungry to go on a run and has already shown a tendency to start fast. Give me South Carolina to get a season-defining win at home.
Tennessee vs South Carolina prediction: South Carolina ML (-126) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150.
