After a bye week, Texas A&M looks to re-focus on the rest of their season. Despite their 1-4 SEC record, the Aggies are 4-4 SU this season with bowl eligibility in front of them. Of course, that’s a far cry from the College Football Playoff bid they received last year, so it’s been a relatively disappointing year for the Aggies. They’ve played in three conference games on the road, and the 20 points they scored against Alabama was almost double what they put up against Missouri and LSU combined. In those three games, the Aggies averaged just under 11 points.
South Carolina is surging after all looked lost following the heart-breaking defeat to Kentucky. Following Tuesday’s CFP Rankings reveal, the Gamecocks are the highest-rated three-loss team, so there is a tangible path to the postseason if they win out – especially if there continues to be chaos across the college football landscape. That said, one week at a time, South Carolina’s sights should be set on the task at hand this week – exacting revenge on the Aggies after the Gamecocks blew a 30-3 halftime lead in College Station last year to lose by one single point.
The Gamecocks and Aggies have struggled in the secondary this year, but TAMU QB Marcel Reed hasn’t proven he’s able to exploit that weakness. He has just five big-time throws and nine turnover-worthy plays (PFF), while he has the lowest completion rate in the SEC among qualified quarterbacks. South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers provides the Gamecocks with an extreme quarterback advantage in that regard, especially with Kendal Briles calling plays. Sellers is tied fourth in the SEC in passing TDs this season, and his numbers would be even better if he didn’t suffer from the second-most drops nationally.
Overall, the edge is with South Carolina offensively, even with RB Matt Fuller out, as the Gamecocks are fairly deep at that position – though he will be missed. The Gamecocks are top-25 in yards per play and third-down conversion rate, where Texas A&M ranks 122nd and 70th, respectively. On the other side, the Aggies haven’t drummed up enough havoc to offset their offensive inefficiencies. TAMU is just 110th in havoc generated outside of garbage time since Week 4, recording only seven sacks in eight games per CFBStats. I’m not sure what the motivation is here for the Aggies, while there is everything to play for if you’re the Gamecocks. That’s priced into this number, and you’re paying a tax for it, but it’s South Carolina or pass.
Texas A&M vs South Carolina prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks -6.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-120).
