Thinking of the Memphis Tigers makes me want to pounce on any total over, but this weekend in Tampa against the tough defense of the Bulls, things may go differently. USF has held eight of nine opponents to 24 points or fewer and seven to 17 or less. Through nine games, the Bulls have allowed just 136 total points, 15.1 per game, and only 11.0 per game at home. They currently own the No. 10 scoring defense in the FBS. The challenge for USF is that, outside of UTSA, they haven't faced an offense with the firepower of Memphis, but they should still be able to slow the Tigers enough to keep this game from turning into a shootout.
Memphis has been explosive all season, but the Tigers haven't been quite as dangerous away from home. In three of their four road games, they were held to 27 points or fewer. USF allows only 312.7 total yards per game and does an excellent job limiting big plays, forcing opponents to sustain long drives rather than generating quick-strike scores. Memphis should move the ball, but doing so consistently against this defense won't be easy.
USF's offense should also help this under. The Bulls average just 25.9 points per game and have been held to 24 or fewer points in more than half of their contests this season. While I wouldn’t be surprised if Memphis does enough to leave town with a victory, this total feels a bit inflated because of the Tigers' reputation for high-scoring games. Something in the neighborhood of 27-20 or 24-20 feels much more realistic, making the under the way to go.
USF vs Memphis prediction: Under 50.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to under 49.5 (-110).
