There are simply too many routes to the under in this game for me to ignore. Texas will be without star offensive lineman Trevor Goosby, while Hollywood Smothers is banged up and may not start. Star wide receiver Cam Coleman could also miss the game. The Longhorns have also already battled turnover issues this season, including Arch Manning's seven interceptions. Enter Mississippi State, a team that has also been struck by the injury bug as well, after losing its starting quarterback. The Bulldogs' defense has done its part to keep them in games and should be ready to support any upset-minded game plan. Injuries, turnovers and strong defenses usually create difficult conditions for a shootout.
The Bulldogs started the season on fire and were even ranked through the first four weeks. After winning four straight games, they ran into tougher competition, the injuries piled up, and the result was three consecutive losses. To make matters worse, they were without star quarterback Kamario Taylor in their last two games and will be without him again on Saturday. In those two contests, Mississippi State managed just 15 total points, getting shut out by LSU before scoring 15 against Oklahoma. If that trend continues against a Texas defense allowing only 19.1 points per game, the Bulldogs could even struggle to reach their modest team total of 14.5. Their defense, however, has continued to hold its own. In five SEC matchups, Mississippi State, with the exception of one, has held every opponent to 34 points or fewer, while two of those foes failed to reach 24 points. They now face a Texas offense that has dealt with injuries, turnovers and inconsistency, and one that has been held to 24 points or fewer in three of its last four games.
A strong defense paired with an offense missing its star quarterback and one that has managed just 15 total points over its last two games. On the other side sits a Texas offense battling injuries and turnover issues while facing a Mississippi State defense that has continued to hold its own. What could possibly go wrong, right? SEC games rarely go exactly as planned, but when these offenses and defenses meet, it's difficult to envision a shootout breaking out. Scores such as 34-14, 27-13, 37-13, and 35-10 all feel well within reach. Take this game under 50.5.
Mississippi State vs Texas best bet: Under 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to under 49.5 (-115).
