I don’t know about you, but after the happenings of Week 7, I was most excited to see where the line for Ole Miss-Texas opened. Texas started the week at -3.5 and has held there for the most part, with some books falling down to a flat -3. Modelers will say there’s value on Texas here despite the Longhorns’ two-game losing streak, but the eye test makes it very difficult to trust Texas in any fashion. Just look at their power conference games. They needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Ohio State at home, nearly lost at Tennessee and then lost back-to-back games against Oklahoma and at home against Florida – two teams that were somewhat broken in the weeks ahead of their meeting with Texas.
Texas QB Arch Manning hasn’t been good, the Longhorns offensive line hasn’t been good and the play-calling has left much to be desired. Due to that confluence of issues, the ‘Horns are 126th in PPA per play, 78th in success rate and 123rd in scoring opportunities in the last six weeks, (CollegeFootballData), as well as 64th in scoring and 92nd in total offense (CFBStats). On paper, there’s so much talent on this offense, so it’s hard to wrap your head around. Maybe the Ole Miss defense could represent a get-right spot for this offense? The Rebels are outside the top 70 in scoring and outside the top 100 in total defense, while they’re outside the top 90 in PPA per play and success rate allowed over the last six weeks.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the Texas offense, I’m going to isolate the Ole Miss offense and take the Rebels team total over. While Texas grades as one of the elite units defensively, I’m not sold they’re quite as good as the numbers depict. The last three offenses they’ve faced have their fair share of deficiencies in the passing game, and Ole Miss is the opposite of that with Trinidad Chambliss. Behind him, the Rebels have scored at least 28 points in every game this year, making this number feel of extreme value.
Working in Ole Miss’ favor is the fact that future first-round NFL Draft pick Colin Simmons is not expected to suit up for this game due to a high-ankle sprain sustained during Texas’ loss to Florida. His 10.5 sacks lead the country, so his absence would surely be felt and would give Chambliss more time in the pocket to find his receivers, which is not ideal for the Longhorns considering Chambliss is a top-25 quarterback in big-time throws when kept clean, while he has thrown zero picks with just two turnover-worthy plays on deep passes of at least 20 yards (PFF). This number is low because of the matchup against the Texas defense, but I think it’s a little too low.
Ole Miss vs Texas prediction: Ole Miss team total over 23.5 (-135) available at bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to 25.5 (-110)
