This is a game that is a lot more exciting now than it appeared to be prior to the start of the campaign. North Texas was not a team I was high on coming into the season, but the Mean Green have exceeded expectations in each of their first two games, covering the spread against Indiana in convincing fashion before routing UNLV at home last week as a short underdog. On the other side, Texas State has played a brutal first two games, with the Bobcats losing at Texas in Week 1 and following that up with a devastating home loss to UTSA in the final seconds. With these recent results in mind, this is a good spot to buy low on the Bobcats and sell high on the Mean Green, and that's exactly what I intend to do.
Both teams have their strengths and weakness, but I just can't get there with this number — especially now that Texas State is laying under a field goal at home. North Texas just closed a three-point underdog at home to UNLV, a team that I've been lower on than the market this season. I backed the Mean Green in what was a perfect spot against a Rebels team that was traveling to Denton after returning from a trip to Hawaii the week prior, but the price on North Texas is getting to be a bit rich this week. Texas State is now being priced as a slightly worse team on a neutral field in this matchup, and I can't quite get there with that aggressive of a stance. I could end up being wrong, but I'll take my chances with Brad Jackson, Beau Sparks, Chris Dawn and an offense that should excel at home. It's a great chance to cash in on a desperate team against an opponent that is primed for a bit of a letdown this week. Lay the points with Texas State.
Texas State -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
